Friday, May 22, 2020

#AmphanSuperCyclone West Bengal: Letter to Narendra Modi

Dear Modi Ji,
When I got the limited internet access yesterday evening, I saw your tweets regarding the situation of West Bengal due to super cyclone. Later in the day, I also got to know that you would be visiting West Bengal today to take stock and review the relief process. I am also aware that your visit will also draw the due attention of mainstream media based in Delhi NCR (and mostly worked for them only) to West Bengal situation. I am very thankful for your kind gesture to decide to leave Delhi after so many days(about two months) just to take care! 

However, I have one (personal) request to you. You may be fully aware that your govt and BJP workers have criticized the Mamta Didi for not implementing big central schemes like PM-KISAN. The criticism of TMC govt is rightly. They have deprived lacs of farmers of getting Direct cash benefits of Rs. 500 per month under PM-KISAN. West Bengal State has 7356557 farmers holding land in their names as per press release of Agriculture Ministry on 28th June 2019. None of these 73.57 lac farmers has got single rupees yet as the state government haven't allowed them to avail the benefits of this scheme due to political ego or gain. In contrast, various other farmers have received upto Rs 10000 in their bank accounts for five instalments of 2000 each for Dec 2018-July 2020. Your government has saved  Rs 73,56,55,70,000 due to this ego clash with Mamta Didi. But the citizen, especially farmers living in the state, have no fault in this. 
But, this is the time to deliver! You may still help people of West Bengal with a big heart. I humbly request you to allot Rs 7356.56 crores for relief and redevelopment of West Bengal in addition to whatever amount your govt has thought of.  This additional money may be used for proper rehabilitation of 1 lac evacuated families(estimated)  that too in order of 5 lac per family in worse effected areas. This would still left  2356 crores for redeveopling other effected areas.
If possible, do not let your party workers to play dirty politics on issues related to the super cyclone.

With Regards,
An Ordinary Resident in West Bengal

Sunday, May 17, 2020

Adjusted Recovery Rate of COVID-19 patients in Indian states| Updated Daily

Kindly bookmark this URL, we shall be updating ARR curves daily! Visit us again! 

Adjusted Recovery Rate(ARR) which is calculated as the ratio of total recovered people to total confirmed cases 14days back. Usually, COVID cases are confirmed with 1-14 days of delays from actual infection, and it takes about 14-28 days for a person to recover from the COVID from the exact infection date. Therefore, we decided to consider 14 days. We caution that ARR for few states could be more than 100% as recorded data talk about days of confirmed cases, not actual days of infection. So patients can recover earlier than 14 days from the confirmed date. The ARR beautifully takes care of the death rate without talking about death.

Friday, May 1, 2020

COVID Safety Index of Indian States give better comparison, not absolute cases or testing rate.

 Andhra Pradesh is on top of the COVID safety index as of 28th May.  Maharashtra on the bottom further worsens to 85.49%.  The full index as of the 28th May has been given later in this article.  We shall be updating the COVID Safety Index daily. Keep visiting to see it! Bookmark the URL!

The comparison of the states based on the total number of cases or/and tests per million is widely being made on social media and  TV news.  All states are being compared without giving importance to their population and geographical area.  When we compare states which consist of Delhi,  based on the absolute number of COVID cases, we do injustice to the highly populated states like UP. Similarly, when we compare states just based on tests per million, we also do not fair with states like Odisha that are low on economic resources, especially testing capability in comparison to states like Kerala. Odisha can never test at the same rate as Delhi. We usually calculate the recovery rate as the ratio of total recovered patients to total confirmed cases till that day. It is almost impossible for any patient to recover on the same day he/she has been confirmed as COVID cases.

Wednesday, April 8, 2020

Adjusted Recovery Rate of Corona may grade COVID19 outbreak |Updated daily

UPDATE: We have added ARR curves for few more countries. Kindly check the last section! You may also comment the name of countries; you want to see the ARR curves for them.
Insight of The Day: ARR for the world(excluding China) has risen above 50%. 

You may have seen a lot of curves comparing various countries based on total cases, total death, and recovery of COVID19 cases. Many of them do talk about the absolute number of cases and also don't count the time it takes for the patient to recover from COVID19 cases. There might be a delay of 1-14 days in the actual date of a person getting infected from COVID and date the person reported as COVID cases. Generally, it takes 14-28 days for a person to get recovered/discharged from the hospital. Therefore, we define Adjusted Recovery Rate(ARR) as a ratio of the Total Recovery cases on a date to total positive cases 14 days back. For example, if we want to calculate ARR for India on the 5th of April, we shall be using total recovery on 5th April and the total number of positive cases on the 22nd March.

Let's have a look at the time series of ARR for various countries and see if we can infer anything from them.