Wednesday, April 8, 2020

Adjusted Recovery Rate of Corona may grade COVID19 outbreak |Updated daily

UPDATE: We have added ARR curves for few more countries. Kindly check the last section! You may also comment the name of countries; you want to see the ARR curves for them.
Insight of The Day: ARR for the world(excluding China) has risen above 50%. 

You may have seen a lot of curves comparing various countries based on total cases, total death, and recovery of COVID19 cases. Many of them do talk about the absolute number of cases and also don't count the time it takes for the patient to recover from COVID19 cases. There might be a delay of 1-14 days in the actual date of a person getting infected from COVID and date the person reported as COVID cases. Generally, it takes 14-28 days for a person to get recovered/discharged from the hospital. Therefore, we define Adjusted Recovery Rate(ARR) as a ratio of the Total Recovery cases on a date to total positive cases 14 days back. For example, if we want to calculate ARR for India on the 5th of April, we shall be using total recovery on 5th April and the total number of positive cases on the 22nd March.

Let's have a look at the time series of ARR for various countries and see if we can infer anything from them.

The below  ARR curve is interactive, you may touch on a point to know the exact ARR.




Now one may infer many things from above ARR curves as follows:
 1) Continuous decrease(Negative slope) in the ARR curve indicates the outbreak is going beyond control.
2) Continuous increase(positive slope) in the ARR curve indicates the situation is well within health capacity.
We emphasize that at least one week should be considered for continuous decrease/increase. Let us list a few points which we can infer from above ARR curves for various countries.

 Italy 

The continuous decrease in ARR from 26 March( reported cases date 12 march) matches the massive outbreak in Italy which has overwhelmed their health capacity. The rate of decrease of ARR has slowed from 5th April(reported case date 22nd march) which also emphasizes the situation is getting a little better.

 South Korea

They aggressively work on the technique of "testing, testing, testing" and isolating positive cases that is fully reflected in our ARR curve. We can see a continuous increase in the ARR curve.  This further indicates that they have been successful to keep the outbreak within their health capacity. ARR has not yet reached 80-95% but that can be explained from their aggressive testing which has decreased the delay between the actual date of infections and reported date. 

US

The ARR curve shows an increase between 24-30 March(10-16 March for reported cases) due to less testing during that time.  The high rate of decrease in the ARR curve after the period clearly indicates that the outbreak in the USA happened at a higher rate than Italy.

 India

Large fluctuations in the ARR curve clearly indicate that India doesn't have sufficient data of cases to make any claim regarding the decrease/increase of outbreak of COVID19 as of 7th April(24th march for reported cases). We may be able to see a clear picture on 21st April(7th April for reported cases)  for making any claim regarding the direction of the outbreak.

United Kingdom 

Nothing much to say about UK, Continous decrease and very small ARR indicates that the outbreak is increasing each day and their health system is not able to treat the patient well in comparison to other countries. It seems they are NOT prepared at all, or they were looking at herd immunity only.

China

The positive and smooth increase in the ARR curve(till 94%+) clearly indicates that China has almost won the fight of  COVID19 if their reporting is trusted.

World except for China

The continuous decrease in the ARR curve from 1st April(25th march for reported cases) shows that the outbreak of covid19 has worsened across the world except for China.

New Addition



 The high values of ARR for France, Spain, Belgium, and Germany indicate that their health system is prepared better as on 27th March(13th March for reported cases) and patients are responding to treatment faster in comparison to other countries.  However, the continuous sharp decrease in ARR also emphasizes that the outbreak has increased sharply in these countries(13th March-25th March for reported cases) and things seem to be going out of control very fast. Germany seems to take the situation back under control from 6th April(23 March for reporting cases) onwards. Iran, where the outbreak has happened earlier now, seems to take things under its control. Russia does not have sufficient data yet to make any strong claim about the direction of the outbreak.
The above ARR curve in this blog will be updated daily, keep visiting it. Share the word ARR with the world by sharing this blog!

6 comments:

  1. Could you also include some of the Nordic countries ?
    Denmark, Norway, Sweden,Finland.
    Thankyou.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't understand the graph for Norway !
      Is it that no one is getting better of an issue about its date ?
      It's constant at 0%..

      Delete
    2. No, it is not zero. It is above zero and fluctuating but decreasing!. You may click on Norway curve line to check exact ARR. It is 1.83%, 1.67%, 1.51%, 1.34%, 1.22%, 1.12%, 1.04%, 0.95%, 0.85%

      Delete
  2. Could you include Balkan countries? North Macedonia, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Greece...

    ReplyDelete